European Union | Immigration | Election results signal possible change of course for the EU


June 19, 2024

Immigration

European Union | Election results signal possible change of course for the EU

Summary

From 6-9 June 2024, EU citizens headed to the polls to vote in the European Parliament elections. In these elections, EU citizens directly elected 720 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). While the centre-right EPP and centre-left S&D have been able to maintain their majority, parties on the right of the political spectrum also made significant gains. The question now arises what impact the election results will have on the EU’s policies on migration.

In the past, the European Commission made efforts to harmonise migration policies to address challenges including an ageing population, skills shortages and the global fight for talent. Recent initiatives include the revamped Single Permit Directive and Blue Card Directive. However, it could be that there will be less appetite for such initiatives in future, depending on the influence of right-wing parties in the European Parliament and in member states. Whether this will lead to further divergence in migration policy across the EU, remains to be seen.

The Detail

The results

The largest political groups in the European Parliament are the European People’s Party (EPP) on the centre- right and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) on the centre-left. These two parties have dominated policy-making in the European Parliament for many years, and in the recent elections they have once again consolidated their position as the largest political groups, with 186 and 135 seats respectively. As a result, it has been reported that current Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (EPP) is likely to succeed in winning a second term.

Another notable development is the setback experienced by Renew Europe and the Greens/EFA, both losing approximately 20 seats compared to 2019. A significant loss for Renew Europe was French President Macron’s L’Europe Ensemble, which saw its seats reduced by about 10 and its vote share capped at 14.6%, a significant drop from 22.42% in the 2019 European elections.

In line with opinion poll predictions, the far right made significant gains in most European countries. The largest increase was for Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. However Marine Le Pen’s lead candidate Jordan Bardella, took more than 30% of the votes in France for her party Rassemblement national. This has led to Emmanuel Macron dissolving the Assemblée National and calling a general election in France, which is due to take place by the end of the month.

The right-wing political groups ECR and ID are set to control 131 seats in the European Parliament. This significant presence will likely mean these parties will have more influence than ever in shaping EU policy during the upcoming parliamentary term.

The new legislative agenda

According to recent reports, migration is likely to remain a key topic for the EU in future. It will be up to the European Commission to set out its priorities for the upcoming 5 year term. This means that some new measures may be introduced by new Commissioners, who are nominated by member states and are subsequently vetted by the European Parliament before they take office.

The run-up to the elections saw the prioritisation of certain measures in the field of migration, such as the recast of the Single Permit Directive (see our alert here for more details), and culminated in the adoption of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum last month. While it is unlikely that member states and Brussels lawmakers will be inclined to revisit this legislation, the new political landscape as a whole will determine how these changes will be implemented and enforced across the EU.

It is also relevant to note that recent reports also showed that defence will likely be a new key topic for the EU, possibly at the expense of green policy, which was a key tenet during the last term of the EU Commission. This is especially noteworthy in light of the loss of seats for the Greens/EFA group in the European Parliament. Whether this will mean a shift in focus towards other technological or innovative sectors remains to be seen, as the European Commission has previously stated that the EU is losing the fight for talent despite specific needs in light of cross border industry needs.

What this means

The EU is responsible for certain policies in labour migration, setting out broad measures to tackle common labour market challenges across the EU. With these measures being dependent on national implementation and EU oversight and enforcement, political developments in EU member states and at EU level are more relevant than ever in this election year.

In the short term employers and employees may not experience significant changes, however the current developments are expected to have a more significant impact in the long term. A key factor in this regard is a possible increase in divergence in implementing EU measures due to a re-focus on national policies at the expense of harmonised EU policy. In this respect, staying abreast of relevant policy changes remains crucial for employers to shape their immigration and mobility policies and make them fit for the future.

Contact us
For a deeper discussion on the above, please reach out to your Vialto Partners point of contact, or alternatively:

Hugo Vijge
Director

Marijan Vrhovac
Senior Associate

Fabian Gielis
Associate

Further information on Vialto Partners can be found here: www.vialtopartners.com


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