24 November 2023
Impact: High
Summary
Following the Dutch general election on 22 November 2023, the right-wing Freedom Party (De Partij voor Vrijheid – PVV), led by Geert Wilders, has emerged as the largest party. This marks a significant change from the outgoing centre-right government, led by Mark Rutte, who was Prime Minister for 13 years.
It is reported that the PVV is looking to tighten immigration by reintroducing work permits for all labour migrants. The impact of this on businesses, particularly those that employ a large number of foreign nationals, is yet to be confirmed but something Vialto Partners is monitoring closely.
The Results
The impact on immigration policy is likely to be shaped depending on the coalition government formation. Discussions on the potential coalition government are currently underway. Now Geert Wilders’ PVV party has won 37 of the 150 seats in the lower chamber of the Dutch parliament it seems that an anti-immigration agenda will play a significant role given this is what Geert Wilders’ and his PVV party campaigned on.
The second largest party, the socialist and green centre-left alliance (GroenLinks-PvdA), led by ex-EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans, is projected to win 25 seats and will be in opposition if PVV succeeds in forming a government. On the other hand, the party of the outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD) came in third with 24 seats and the newcomer NSC coming in fourth with 20 seats.
While negotiations are likely to take several months, the PVV has the initiative in forming a coalition and is expected to reach out to VVD and NSC, who are broadly centre-right, in the upcoming talks.
The Analysis
As the result of the election on 22 November 2023, the right-wing PVV emerged as the winner with a projected 37 seats out of 150, overshadowing its closest rival, the centre-left alliance of Frans Timmermans (GroenLinks-PvdA), which has been projected to secure a total of 25 seats. A PVV victory by this margin was unexpected and exceeds any previous results since the party was formed in 2006.
The PVV will have the opportunity to initiate coalition talks to form a government, as they require at least 76 seats to form a majority. It is expected that the PVV will first approach the centre-right parties VVD and NSC, as well as the relatively new Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) who won a large proportion of seats in the recent elections for the upper chamber. However, with many parties traditionally not willing to work with the PVV due to its hardline anti-Islam policies, it is likely coalition talks will take months.
Differences on asylum and labour migration policy led to the fall of Mark Rutte’s cabinet in July 2023 and this topic is likely to be a key factor in upcoming coalition talks. This is also taking into account that PVV campaigned on a promise to curb asylum and limit migration.
Whether Geert Wilders will succeed in forming a government and, if so, what the impact will be for corporate immigration remains unclear. However it is possible that current policy will be subject to significant change depending on the outcome of coalition talks.
Contact us
Vialto will continue to monitor developments and the possible impact for businesses and employees. For further details on the above, please reach out to your usual Vialto Partners contact or alternatively contact:
Nini Braken-Zheng
Senior Immigration Advisory Associate
nini.braken-zheng@vialto.com
Marijan Vrhovac
Senior Immigration Associate
marijan.vrhovac@vialto.com
Hugo Vijge
Europe Immigration Advisory Lead
hugo.vijge@vialto.com
Raj Mann
Global Immigration Advisory Lead
raj.x.mann@vialto.com
Sharan Kundi
Global Immigration Lead
sharan.kundi@vialto.com
Further information on Vialto Partners can be found here: www.vialtopartners.com